Throughout the NFL season I’ve made picks with friends using an unconventional system. This system might be the most math I’ve done since college, but I’ve had some success with it. First, I look at the total points scored for one team and the points their opposing defense gives up to find the average score (For example: team A scores 29 points, team B gives up 27 points, I’d give team A 28 points). This is the foundation for the system and from there I include variables such as +2 points for the home team, turnovers and advanced stats based off of Pro Football Focus grades. These come up with picks that I should take…but sometimes my dumb brain can’t resist a juicy over. Let’s lose money together.
IND@BUF(-6.5) O/U 51
I originally thought Vegas was pretty spot on with this line, however, my analytics say to take the Colts. My analytics terrify me… Buffalo is allowing around 6500 fans this weekend, which means Phil Rivers will have to request 15% of the ticket sales for his family to attend. Couple that with his inability to shotput a football more than 30 yards anymore and I love the Bills. That being said, Buffalo’s run defense is horrendous and Frank Reich might be able to keep our white knight Josh Allen off the field. I’m torn on this one, but I’m going Bills to win, Colts to cover.
Pick: Colts(+6.5)
LAR@SEA(-3.5) O/U 42.5
My preseason Super Bowl pick Rams are a dumpster fire on offense, but are rollin’ on defense. All signs point toward Jared Goff starting, which keeps this line close. I love live betting the Rams because you can tell right away from the first few drives if Jared is dealin’ or if he looks like a deer in the headlights; and they’ll need him as the Seahawks have the #1 run defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency. I honestly have no idea who will win this game, but I love both defenses, hammer the under in this snooze fest.
Pick: Under 42.5
TB(-8)@WAS O/U45
The Football Team squeaked by a team blatantly disrespecting our beautiful sport by putting in a “Nate Sudfeld”. The heart of that team is the defense which will have its hands full with Tom Brady and his roommate Antonio Brown. The Tompa Brady Gronkaneers have beat up on terrible teams all season and I expect them to blow out this sorry excuse of a franchise. I love the under too, but this might turn into a bloodbath.
Pick: TB(-8)
BAL(-3)@TEN (54.5)
Baltimore is looking to “get their bike back” but Derrick Henry might ride it all over the pedestrian Baltimore run defense. Expect him to rack it up, but the entire Titans defense looks deflated and expect Lamar Jackson to drop a gear this playoffs. This game is far from a lock in my analytics, but I’m head over handlebars for the over.
Pick: over 54.5
CHI@NO(-10) (47)
These teams have the pleasure of being the inaugural Nickelodeon playoff game. My nightmare situation is my 3 year old niece watches this game and has to listen to Spongebob’s analysis of a horrifying injury. Check your local sportsbook for the over/under on how many times they slime someone on TV and hit me up; I want in on that action. The under is again in play here, but I like the Bear’s defense to keep it close. Saints go marching.
Pick: Bears +10
CLE@PIT(-6) (47.5)
I made my analytical spreadsheet prior to the coco attacking the Brown’s facility so…hammer the Steelers. For real, the NFL should be charged with crimes against humanity for refusing to reschedule any of the Browns’ games the past 3 weeks. Big Ben hopefully exercised the demons on incognito mode last week and, barring any UCL injuries that will require tommy john surgery, he should be fresh. Meanwhile, Mike Tomlin will have some useless sound bite for the media to hype up the boys. I love the under with Stefanski out, but I can’t in good conscious root for bad football in more than one game.
Pick: Steelers -6
The Morning Flush 