Throughout the NFL season I’ve made picks with friends using an unconventional system. This system might be the most math I’ve done since college, but I’ve had some success with it. First, I look at the total points scored for one team and the points their opposing defense gives up to find the average score (For example: team A scores 29 points, team B gives up 27 points, I’d give team A 28 points). This is the foundation for the system and from there I include variables such as +2 points for the home team, turnovers and advanced stats based off of Pro Football Focus grades. These come up with picks that I should take…but sometimes my dumb brain can’t resist a juicy over.
The divisional round is one of my favorite weekends of the football season. It is the last weekend where you get football on Saturday and Sunday. Let’s feel blessed for actually having a football season during these crazy times, and soak up as much of it as we possibly can before it’s out of our lives for another 6 months. Let’s lose some money.
LAR@GB(-6.5) O/U (45.5)
Sean McVay seems to hate Jared Goff, which makes the monster contract he received a problem moving forward. The Rams defense is good enough to win a Super Bowl if they get just a tiny bit of production from the quarterback position. In regards to this game, the numbers point toward the Rams, but I don’t trust a Californian in terrible weather. I’m also not betting against Aaron Rodgers in potential snowy weather, but I do think the Rams defense is good enough to keep this close. Not a sexy pick, but I’m taking the under.
Pick: Under 45.5
BAL@BUF(-2.5) O/U(50)
As a de facto member of Bills Mafia, I am terrified of this matchup. The Bills run defense stinks and the Ravens are more efficient on the ground than the Colts who put up 164 yards on the ground (they should’ve had more, but Buffalo hometown hero, Frank Reich, threw his former team a bone by slinging it with Phil Rivers 46 times). My inner sharp betting expert says to take the Ravens, but I can’t go against my heart and our sweet prince Josh Allen. CIRCLE THE WAGONS.
Pick: Bills (-2.5)
CLE@KC(-10) O/U(57.5)
The Browns shut up Juju Smith-Schuster, who was inexplicably dancing on a 4th down while trailing by 2 scores in the 4th quarter. I’m so happy for the Dawg Pound and that sad franchise, but according to Chase Claypool and his fake unibrow, “they’re about to get clapped by the Chiefs”. Side note: what has happened to the Steelers culture…I feel like 5 years ago Mike Tomlin would’ve shoved his foot so far up Juju’s fanny his nose would bleed, but now his players are making a mockery of that franchise. I digress, coming off a bye Andy Reid is a combined 23-5 during the regular season and playoffs and his bar napkin of a face mask will be looking awfully tight after multiple cheat days during his bye week. He’ll definitely have some new wrinkles offensively and might have Tyreek Hill run 10 miles during this game. That being said, the Browns should be able to run the ball and keep this close. Side bet: hammer over 50.5 total yards for Kareem Hunt in a homecoming game. The Browns stay within the number for most of this matchup, but I’m expecting a late backdoor cover by the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs (-10)
TB@NO(-3) O/U(52)
It’s hard to beat a team 3 times in the same year let alone a Tom Brady led team. The Bucs offensive line woes came during a stretch they lost one of their key offensive lineman Ali Marpet, who has had a phenomenal season. The under is very much in play for this game with two solid defenses and two AARP quarterbacks under center; but similar to last week, I cannot in good conscious root for bad football twice during the divisional round. Give me the Tompa Brady Gronkaneers in a close one.
Pick: TB (+3)
The Morning Flush 