Throughout the NFL season I’ve made picks with friends using an unconventional system. This system might be the most math I’ve done since college, but I’ve had some success with it. First, I look at the total points scored for one team and the points their opposing defense gives up to find the average score (For example: team A scores 29 points, team B gives up 27 points, I’d give team A 28 points). This is the foundation for the system and from there I include variables such as +2 points for the home team, turnovers and advanced stats based off of Pro Football Focus grades. These come up with picks that I should take…but sometimes my dumb brain can’t resist a juicy over.
A couple snoozers in the first few playoff rounds, but let’s not let that discourage us from getting excited for this Championship Sunday. Remember, football is about to leave our lives for the next 6 months, so relish every kick-out block, gang tackle and flip of field position before it’s too late. I love the card this weekend, so let’s lose some money.
TB@GB(-3.5) O/U(51.5)
Let’s not forget Tyler Heinicke carved up this Tampa Bay defense two weeks ago and allowed 465 yards to Mahomes, 225 to Cousins, 356 to Matt Ryan and another 265 to Matt Ryan down the stretch of the regular season. Unfortunately, the writing has been on the wall with Drew Brees for a few years now, and last week demonstrated it. Between his two gifted interceptions and Jared Cook dropping a dime for a pick while also fumbling while the Saints were marching, the Saints handed that game to the Bucs. Rodgers has a huge game and Aaron Jones will get his as well and the Packers secondary will do enough for the Packers to win and cover. The numbers say to take the over as well, but I’m more confident in the Packers covering the number.
Pick: Packers (-3.5)
BUF@KC(-3) O/U(54)
I believed leading up to this game Buffalo matched up better with Kansas City than with Cleveland. The run defense is easily the Bills’ biggest weakness and this was the strength of the Browns offense. Andy Reid knows this too, however, as Clyde Edwards-Helaire (EEEE-lare) ran for 161 yards in Week 7. Buffalo has the firepower to match the Chiefs score for score, so I really believe this comes down to who is more efficient in the red zone. Surprisingly, KC ranked 15th in red zone touchdowns, scoring 59% of the time; whereas the Bills scored a touchdown roughly 63% of the time. Y’all already know I’m taking the Bills, but wait until Patrick Mahomes is cleared and there is a more favorable line. I don’t hate the under, but I’m hoping for points and refuse to root for bad football. Circle the wagons.
Pick: Bills (+3)
Some props:
Tom Brady didn’t need to do much in the week 6 rout of the Packers and the Packers secondary ranks in the top 5 in efficiency. Tom Brady hates the cold now and his brittle body can’t handle “The Frozen Tundra”. I’d sprinkle Tom Brady under 289 yards.
Aaron Rodgers had an easy 296 against the league’s best pass defense last week. He’s absolutely unconscious right now and there’s no reason to believe he won’t do the same against this suspect Bucs defense. Hammer A-Rod over 279.5 yards.
Doing my best Madden impersonation here, but if the Bills are going to beat the Chiefs, they’re going to need to put up points. They’ll be putting a lot on our boy Josh Allen, so go ahead and take over 305.5 total yards for him in this game. Even if he doesn’t get to 300 passing, he’ll make enough plays with his legs to get there.
The Morning Flush 