Although it was another losing Sunday, you gotta be fired up for the greatest 3 weeks of the year! It’s finally arrived, let’s goooo!! I really need to get right with the Good Lord and avoid picking games on the sabbath, but I can’t help myself. Still, I’ll take a 17-9 Championship Week with some positive vibes heading into the tournament. Although I’m disappointed the Mountain West only got two bids and Memphis was snubbed, I think the committee got it right and were helped out by several upsets in Conference Tournaments, but their 4 replacement teams are absolute garbage. Replace CSU with Memphis and Ole Miss for Boise State and the rest looks good.
We’ll talk about the first four games of the NCAA tournament, but first, let’s get to some NIT matchups.
NIT
Wed. 3/17 Toledo vs Richmond (-1.5) (154)
The Rockets were upset in the finals by the Ohio Bobcats, who reached the tournament for the first time since 2012. Richmond had lofty expectations coming into the season after beating what we would soon find out is a shitty Kentucky team, but they did play a competitive A-10 schedule. What wins tournaments? Senior Guard play, Toledo has two of them, Richmond only has one. Rockets +1.5.
Western KY vs St. Mary’s (-2) (125)
I’m gonna be honest with y’all I only watch Saint Mary’s because they are typically the only team that will give Gonzaga a run for its money year in and year out, but they got absolutely dog walked this year every time they played the Zags. They were also swept by BYU, but they did have one impressive win where they beat the piss out of CSU. Not sure why they are in this tournament over some of the other snubbed schools, but I’ll take them over the Hilltoppers -2. Say something nice about Western Kentucky: they beat Alabama in December.
Thurs. 3/18 NC State vs Davidson(-1.5) (139.5)
The A-10 is adequately represented in this tournament and I feel like their teams will be more motivated than these bigger schools who had NCAA aspirations. The senior guard play favors the Wildcats: their stud guard Kellan Grady averages 17 points per game while the Wolfpack feature two freshman guards. I don’t like that they’re favorites, but I’ll take Davidson -1.5.
SMU vs Boise State (-1) (145.5)
I’m still embarrassed how much I pounded the table for Boise State last week, but they are a really talented team who are capable of winning this tournament if they take it seriously and hanging a meaningless banner in the ExtraMile Arena. SMU didn’t play for a month and 4 days when they lost to Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, so the rust might carry over into this tournament. I like the Broncos -1.
NCAA-First Four
Texas Southern(-2) vs Mt. St. Mary’s (132.5)
Texas Southern is one of those teams that consistently schedules difficult non-conference matchups, gets their asses handed to them early in the season, wins their conference tournament and comes into the NCAA tournament with a bunch of experience. They also have tremendous senior guard play from Michael Weathers who averages 16.5 points per game. I don’t know much about Mt. St. Mary’s. They’re a young team who won a few games in a row and got lucky with some covid pauses, so I’ll take Texas Southern -2.
Drake vs Wichita State(-2) (139.5)
This is going to be a great game. Drake was a team you could bet on night in and night out and they would typically cover the spread. They had a few ugly losses to Valpo and Bradley that kept them from getting a bye in this round, but at one point they were among the best three point shooting teams in the country as far as efficiency. Both of these teams love the 3 ball, I’m hammering the over, but gun-to-head I’ll take Wichita State -2 in a close one.
App St(-3) vs Norfolk St. (135.5)
Two completely different scenarios for these teams coming into this game. Appalachian State had to play every round and beat the three best schools in their conference tournament to win the Sun Belt. They faced a three week layoff and followed it up with playing 5 games in 7 days to make up for it. Norfolk State was clearly the best team in their conference with quality wins over James Madison and George Mason. Probably a coin flip, but I’ll take battle-tested App State -3.
UCLA vs Michigan State(-1.5) (136)
Really disappointed the committee didn’t heed my advice and make the PAC-12 a 1-bid league, instead we have 4 of these sorry teams to watch lose in the first round. UCLA lost 4 of their last 5 coming into the tournament, whereas MSU got a tournament-resume boosting win vs Michigan at the end of the regular season before being bounced by Maryland. I hate this matchup and much rather would’ve seen Memphis vs Louisville here, but I’ll take Little Brother -1.5.
I’m asking for grace, I may not post necessarily in the morning, but I will get blogs out every day this week leading up to the first round with some NIT mixed in. I love this time of the year and would love to hear some feedback from everyone. If you’re interested in doing a bracket challenge, reach out to me! Can’t wait to hear from everyone. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 