I’m going to remind everyone I was under the weather from the Covid Vaccine and had Covid brain yesterday morning when I posted the blog, so I take no accountability for the 3-5 picks yesterday. We still have an opportunity to have a huge Monday and set ourselves up nicely for the homestretch of the tourney.
To recap, I think my Big12 bubble theory was true, both 3 seed West Virginia and 4 seed Oklahoma State pissed their final four runs away, screwing up ⅔ of my brackets. The B1G is also on bubble watch with Illinois, Ohio State, Purdue and Michigan state getting upset. Again, hand up, I was wrong about the PAC-12, I guess they were actually good. Kinda bullshit whoever is in charge had a one seed play the first game in the morning, maybe more bullshit to have that game on a Sunday against Sister Jean…but whatever…I’m so happy Loyola Chicago is in our lives for another week. Villanova is a great story, I thought they were dead to rights with all their injuries, but they’ve looked good so far this tournament and might give Baylor some problems in the Sweet Sixteen. Oral (lol) Roberts gives me another week of content to draw from and let’s me dance on the SEC’s grave a bit more, and for that, I’m eternally grateful. A bunch of twitter nerds reminded everyone they made an Elite Eight appearance in 1974, and it feels like ‘74 all over again. Houston is officially on fraud watch. Everyone was on Rutgers for some reason, but they backed into the tournament and should’ve beat them–I think Syracuse beats Houston in the next round.
Monday
7 Oregon vs 2 Iowa(-5) (147.5)
I like Oregon in this game, but I’m a little concerned with how rusty they will be after a 9 day layoff. I’ve been on Iowa overs all season, and I don’t see a reason to veer from that now. I’ll take Over 147.5 with the uncertainty around Oregon.
8 Oklahoma vs 1 Gonzaga(-14.5) (154.5)
1:40 in the afternoon feels like a much more reasonable time than 11 in the morning for a 1 seed to play. I feel like whoever is in charge wanted Sister Jean to move on…think about the ratings from having a 101 year old in the tournament, bananas. I do think Gonzaga could beat the shit out of Oklahoma, but their numbers are a bit skewed to the schedule they played. I think Oklahoma can slow them down enough to stay within the number and stay under 154.5, I’ll take the under.
14 Abilene Christian vs 11 UCLA(-4.5) (133)
Abilene Christian was able to slow Texas down to a screeching halt, but I’m not sure if they can do it twice in a row. Mick Cronin might’ve finally learned to coach, so I guess I’ll take UCLA -4.5.
13 Ohio vs 5 Creighton(-5.5) (149)
Credit to me for being all over Ohio and we also nailed the under, so good job everyone. That being said, I’m shocked the spread is this low for Creighton. I was hoping we’d get more value around 7.5 or so. I still like Ohio to win this game, but I think the real value is under 149.
8 LSU vs 1 Michigan(-5) (148.5)
As a perpetually heartbroken Michigan fan, this game scares the piss outta me. I really thought St. Bonaventure would’ve at least kept it close against the Tigers, but that game was in hand from the jump. We might have a little scare here, but we’re still winning it all. I’ll take Michigan -5 #GoBlue. (I also think the over is in play)
5 Colorado vs 4 Florida State(-1.5) (140.5)
I’m a bit stuck here. I feel like I need to just lean into the skid with my newfound “maybe the PAC-12 is good” take, but I also like Florida State a lot and could potentially make the Final Four. That’s not fun though, fuck it Buffaloes +1.5.
10 Maryland vs 2 Alabama(-5.5) (138)
I hate Alabama and it pisses me off that they are going to get a cakewalk to the Elite Eight. I think UConn would’ve posed some matchup problems, but I’m not feeling Maryland. Again, I expected this line to be more than 5.5 which makes me think Vegas knows something…and I have to ride my “SEC is a fraud conference” take… Let’s go Terps +5.5.
6 USC(-1.5) vs 3 Kansas (134.5)What in the Sam Hell is Vegas doing to me making the Jayhawks dawgs in this one. Maybe they’re readers of the flush, if so I appreciates y’all, but this line makes no sense. Kansas was one of the hottest teams in the country before they got the Coco and USC didn’t exactly look dominant. The total is tough too because I do see this game turning into a bit of a rock fight (don’t let Kansas’ 93 points in the first round fool you, they like to control the pace of the game), but 134.5 seems a bit low for one of the best players in the country Evan Mobley. In these cases, I’ll ask myself, what does Vegas want me to pick? And I’ll pick the opposite. It really feels like they want people to pick Kansas, 57% of the money is on Kansas, fade the public, I’ll go USC -1.5.
This has been a fun grind throughout the first/second round, but I’ll probably take a break until Thursday. I gotta hit the refresh button and get ready for the Sweet Sixteen/Elite Eight. Love you, Bye.
The Morning Flush 