This Saturday’s slate of College Football has it all. We’ve got a compelling matchup of old Big East foes between Virginia Tech and West Virginia to kickoff the morning, an SEC rivalry with ‘Bama and Florida in the afternoon, Auburn and Penn State later in the evening and a couple great night caps with ASU vs BYU and Fresno State vs UCLA. We’re picking all the marquee games and some dawgs with a ton of value. Let’s get it.
Morning Slate
Maryland(-7)@Illinois (61.5) Pick: Maryland -7
The Illini STINK. That’s really all you need to know about this pick. Just by using my eyeballs, Maryland will be a bowl eligible team by the end of the year, Illinois will not, I’ll lay the points.
8 Cincinnati(-3.5)@Indiana (49.5) Pick: Cincy -3.5
Starting this off with two favorites on a blog titled dawgs are barkin’, but if Cincy wants to make a claim for the College Football Playoff, this is one of the few opportunities they will have. They will need to not only win, but win big to boost their resume. They can and will win big in Bloomington.
15 Virginia Tech@West Virginia(-2.5) (50) Pick: VT +2.5
I don’t love the pick. This is an old Big East rivalry with the winner receiving the Black Diamond Trophy, but the two teams haven’t played in 4 years and I’m skeptical of Va. Tech’s 15 ranking after beating a North Carolina team who doesn’t look as dominant as last year. I love the Hoakies defense though, and am leaning toward the under as well.
Michigan State@24 Miami(-6.5) (56.5) Pick: MSU +6.5
Miami has shown nothing to warrant a top 25 ranking or a reason to be favored by 6.5 to a Power 5 school. Michigan State looks much better this year (maybe even good?!?!)…I will take the points in this one, sprinkle the moneyline and maybe even a same game parlay with the under…
Minnesota@Colorado(-2.5) (48.5) Pick: CU-2.5
Without Mohamed Ibrahim, Minnesota STINKS. This was on full display last week against a terrible Miami of Ohio team where they squeaked by with a 5 point victory. Colorado looked good against a top-10 Texas A&M team and had a chance to win late, so I’ll take the Buffs in Boulder.
Nevada(-1.5)@Kansas State (50.5) Pick: Watch the damn game
I have no idea what to expect from Kansas State after Skylar Thompson left with a knee injury and the entire team looked terrible last week, but I do think this will still be a great game. I’m staying away from this one, but I want to draw attention to it because it’s going to be good. I’m leaning toward the over because Nevada has the ability to put a ton of points on the board and KSU will have to answer. This will be a great bridge game from the morning witching hour to the Bama/Florida game.
Afternoon:
1Alabama(-14.5)@11Florida (59.5) Pick: over
It feels WAAAAYYY too early in the season for this game to be going on. This should be a late November with playoff and SEC implications, but we’re treated with a week 3 matchup between two blue bloods. Florida hasn’t won this matchup since 2008 and the Tide have rolled against the Gators in every matchup since then, beating them by 14 or more points every time other than in last year’s SEC Championship when Florida rallied late before falling 52-46. If you’re looking for a nugget, 3 of the last 4 matchups have gone over 60 points and this early matchup tends to favor the offense. I’ll take the over in a game the books are daring us to take Florida and the under.
Kent State vs 5 Iowa(-22.5) (56) Pick: Under
One thing I’m buying this year: Iowa unders. This team is an absolute wagon defensively and puts their offense in good spots, but their offense is going to be the same offense we’ve seen the last 20 years under Kirk Ferentz–manage the game and help the defense. This total is way too high for a ball control offense and Kent State might not score.
Evening
Utah(-8.5)@San Diego State (43) Pick: SDSU +8.5
This line is a fucking travesty. Utah let a very average BYU team off the hook last week, who beat a shitty Arizona team by 8, while SDSU did what they were supposed to do and shitpumped the same UofA team by 4 scores. This game will be close, but I will also be taking the Aztecs moneyline.
22Auburn@10Penn State(-5) (53) Pick: Auburn (+5)
I’m not sold on either team. Auburn has shitpumped a couple FCS squads to the tune of 122-10 and I’m still convinced Sean Clifford stinks for Penn State. The only aspect of this game making me lean toward the Nittany Lions is the whiteout game factor. Even if you decide to skip over this game, watch it for this spectacle alone.
Virginia@21North Carolina(-8) (66.5) Pick: Virginia+8
Too many points for a North Carolina squad I’m not sold on and a Virginia team I think is undervalued. This total is 100% driven by last week’s offensive output by both squads, but the defense for both schools have been great so far as well. I’m taking the points, sprinkling the moneyline, same game parlay the under, capeesh?
Utah State@Air Force(-9.5) (54) Pick: USU/Under
Again, the line makes no sense. Utah State beat a “power 5” school week 1 with Washington State and cruised to an FCS victory over North Dakota. Airforce wasn’t tested in either of their matchups, either. This game should be closer to -2…-3 in favor of the Falcons, so I’ll hammer the Aggies and the under. Air Force is going to run their triple option and play good defense.
Night cap
19Arizona State(-4)@23BYU (51)Pick: ASU-4
I might be speaking a bit from the heart, but BYU is overrated. They squeaked by a terrible Arizona team and beat an average Utah squad. I’m not 100% sold on the Sun Devils either, but I just hope they can put this BYU hype to bed.
Fresno State@13UCLA(-11) (63) Pick: Fresno State +11
Fresno State is GOOD. They had a great chance to beat a very good Oregon team on the road and ran out of gas, but they got some cats on that team. I love UCLA as well, and they’ll probably win this game, but this game will be close. I encourage all of you out East to stay up for this game…it might be the best game of the day.
10-2 last Saturday and I love this board. Let’s go bankrupt our bookies again this weekend, love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 