Week 2 College Football/Thursday Night Football Preview
I really wish Bama, Clemson and Ohio State all lost yesterday to see the landscape of college football on fire, but we all know those bozos are making the playoffs. Enough about yesterday, we don’t need to revisit my record (Michigan State moneyline/under parlay, San Diego State money line and Utah State moneyline kept us in positive units though). Let’s take a look at the shitty week 1 analytics and make some picks.
So much of the numbers are week 1 over reactions that I’ll be using more of the eye test this week. Again, these lines were generated earlier in the week, but we’ll use Saturday night lines.
DEN(-6.5)@JAX (45.5) Pick: Over
I love the Broncos in this one too…almost so much that it scared me out of picking them. The Jags defense stinks, the Broncos might put up 35 alone and their defense will get gashed from time to time on the ground, I’ll take the over.
CIN@CHI(-2.5) (45.5) Pick: CIN +2.5
I almost started off these picks with two straight overs because that Bears defense stinks now. I don’t have confidence in Andy Dalton to put up 20+ against a cupcake defense like he’ll see today, so I’ll roll with the Bung holes.
HOU@CLE(-12.5) (48.5) Pick: Hou +12.5
All of my analytics are skewed toward the week 1 game with the Jags for the Texanand away from the Browns who played a dynamic Chiefs offense. Luckily, PFF helped me get some advanced stats to figure it out, but I still don’t love taking the Texans EVER this year…but too many points for an NFL game.
LAR(-3.5)@IND (48) Pick: Rams -3.5
I really wanted to take the under in this game too, but the Rams might be able to put up 35 on any given Sunday, the Colts…can’t. I’m gonna roll with the Rams, they’re going to be a wagon this year.
BUF(-3.5)@MIA(48) Pick: Under
This line feels downright disrespectful to the Dolphins, but I never said I wasn’t biased. I can’t pick Josh to lose 2 games in a row, I’ll go with the analytics and take th under.
SF(-3)@PHI (49) Pick: SF-3
I said last week I’m picking against the eagles almost every week, I’m keeping my word. They still stink, you can’t tell me otherwise.
LV@PIT(-6) (46.5) Pick: LV+6
Another disrespectful line…the Raiders needed some magic to get a win last week but this is too many points. I also love the under.
NE(-6)@NYJ (43) Pick: Under
There are some games you look at and for the rest of eternity, you know you’ll pick the under in that game. New England vs the Jets are that game. I don’t care if 30 years from now both teams have generational quarterbacks, I’m hammering the under.
NO(-3.5)@CAR (44.5) Pick: Car+3.5
My analytics love the Panthers advanced stats to bring this game back to baseline after New Orleans put it on Green Bay and the panthers got into a rock fight with the Jets. I love them too, I’ll take them to win this game outright.
MIN@AZ(-3.5) (50.5) Pick: AZ -3.5
I love the Cards defense, I hate the Vikings defense. Simple as that. Cards.
ATL@TB(-12.5) (51.5) pick: under
Poor Matt Ryan.. he watched Matt Stafford get traded to a competent organization and have immediate success, while he’s stuck in mediocrity for the rest of his career. The Falcons might not score, so as long as this isn’t 52-0, we’re good.
TEN@SEA(-6) (54) Pick: ehhh Sea-6
I don’t love this game, we all knew the Titans would be bad on defense and they were atrocious. Part of their offensive woes feels like an anomaly, but I’ll go against them in this one. Tyler Lockett is a dude.
DAL@LAC(-3) (55) Pick: DAL +3
This game could go either way, a ton of points around the number, so I’m not comfortable with either the spread or the total. I’ll take the value.
KC(-3.5)@BAL (53.5) Pick: Over
Basketball on grass, ain’t nobody stoppin’ nobody. I’ll hammer the over confidently, maybe sprinkle Ravens ML.
DET@GB(-11.5) (48.5) Pick: Over
Green Bay will probably beat that ass, it’s probably the smarter pick, but life’s too short to bet the under, I’m hammering the over.
I’m not confident in any of these picks, but football is football! Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 