Dawgs Are Barkin
We’re baaaack. I might have the coco, but that just means I have more time for you beautiful people. Hopefully this can be a more regular thing with grad school coming to an end and life slowing down, but we’ll play it by beer. Here’s my terrible picks for the weekend, tail them or fade them, but at least hear me out for every pick. Lets get it.
Bengals@Titans(-3.5) O/U: 47.5 Pick: Titans ML/Under 57.5 Tease (+100)
The Titans might be the most disrespected team in the NFL, but I was really close to going with an alternate spread for the Bengals. They’re the fun, trendy team all of us suckers are falling in love with while the Titans might not be sexy, but they do all the little things right. I actually think this is going to come down to who plays more defense. The Bengals are in the top-10 in coverage efficiency in comparison to the bottom-10 in pass rush and run defense efficiency according to PFF (Pro Football Focus). Meanwhile, the Titans are top 10 in both coverage and run defense efficiency, but struggle to get after the quarterback. This might be another chapter in the Joe Burrow/Jamarr Chase legacy, but I’ll take the Tennessee and their defense.
SF@GB(-5.5) O/U: 47 Pick: SF+5.5, Sprinkle SF ML
I don’t love this pick; especially because Aaron Rodgers doesn’t need to be prolific to win this game. I still think this is going to be a field goal game either way, so I’ll take the points and the moneyline value with SF as a dog. If you’re leaning toward the Packers, I think you can get some value with Packers moneyline/under 54.5 parlay for +100.
LAR@TB(-3) O/U: 48 Pick: Rams +7.5/Over 40.5, sprinkle Rams ML
The Rams have the best Run Defense efficiency rating according to PFF and are top 10 in almost every statistical category. As long as Matt Stafford doesn’t fuck this up with a couple of doy-doy plays, the Rams should be in good shape to cover the 7.5. This isn’t the Eagles the Bucs are facing, their injuries on the offensive side of the ball makes the Rams ML a great play.
BUF@KC(-2.5) O/U: 54.5 Pick: BUF+7.5/Under 60.5, Sprinkle Bills ML
Maybe I’m picking with my heart over my head, fuckin’ sue me, or fade me. The Bills are a fuckin’ wagon in large part to their 3rd ranked secondary and top-10 pass rush. As showcased in the Pats game, they won’t put the handcuffs on Josh Allen and will utilize him in the run game. I like them to control the clock and play defense to come out of Arrowhead alive, so HAMMER THE BILLS, hammer the under, let’s fuckin’ goooooo.
7 games left. Soak it in before it’s out of our lives again. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 