What terrible juju doing something as meaningless as betting on college basketball on a day designated for love. Shame on you if you did this, and you deserve to lose all your bets…which is what we did yesterday. There’s no reason to fret, after one of my worst days yesterday we had a HUGE bounceback last week, remember? Take a deep breath, take a look at this action-packed board and regroup.
TL/DR:
Game of the night: 4 Kentucky@ 16 Tennessee(-1.5) 7:00pm MT ESPN
Picks:
MSU-2.5
Texas-1
Hofstra -6.5
Providence +4.5
UNI -4
Kentucky+1.5
Wisconsin+3
Arkansas-7.5/ Over 138
Game of the Night 4 Kentucky@16 Tennessee(-1.5) (140) 7pm MT ESPN
I love mid-majors a much as the next guy, but sometimes you just have to pick the obvious choice for a game of the night. Both teams have the talent to make a deep March (maybe April??) run. For most of my life, I’ve bashed SEC football for having too much shine, but this year’s SEC college basketball has been must watch tv. I’ll humbly take credit for having Kentucky as a number 1 seed before most of these “experts”, as much as it pains me to say this…. it feels like a Cal year. I’m going to take them with an alternate line (+4.5/5.5) with an alternate over (132/134) for even money. I’ll also sprinkle them to win the whole damn thing for some misery insurance.
Picks
19 Michigan State-2.5@Penn State
I’m going to take all the rat lines for the rest of eternity. They have to hit more times than not right? I won’t hammer them, give them a little sprinkle, but take my head off with this one because this line makes no sense.
20 Texas-1@Oklahoma
I was seriously considering taking Oklahoma out of my bracket before their Q1 win over Texas Tech. That felt like a classic letdown spot for the Red Raiders though with a Sooner team with their backs against the wall. The only other win they had in the previous 8 games was against a West Virginia team that looks completely lost. This is another letdown spot for Texas, but I have very little faith in the Sooners.
Hofstra-6.5@Elon
It’s a 3 team race between UNC Wilmington, Towson and Hofstra for the CAA, maybe throw in Delaware. Charleston and Drexel are frisky too, Elon is nowhere on my radar…so take the Pride here in what is surely a trap game.
10 Villanova@8 Providence +4.5 (132)
KenPom rates Providence as the “luckiest team” in the nation which reflects this rat line. They go as far as to say the 8th ranked Friars are rated 47 in the nation in relation to their algorithm. Horseshoe up their ass or not, I’m going to tease this line to around +9 and take an alternate over around 125 for even money. If you’re going to give me this many points, I’ll gladly take the cheese. At what point do we stop living our lives on a spread sheet and come to a mutual understanding there’s a human element in sports?
Northern Iowa-4@Illinois State
They let me down Saturday, but Northern Iowa is still a borderline contender in the Missouri Valley.
4 Kentucky+1.5@16 Tennessee (140)
I’m taking Kentucky moneyline, but if I were to recommend a bet to someone, I would take an alternate Wildcat line (around +5 with an over 132 tease for even money). This is 100% a hedge for my hatred of Calipari, and this analysis is going to be really weak, but this Kentucky team is really good.
15 Wisconsin+3@Indiana
Another game where I’ll be taking moneyline dawgs, but you can tease to +7 and under 137 if you’re in love with the plus sign. I’m ready to take Indiana out of my bracket. With a three straight losses coming into tonight, a 4th straight might drop them to my bubble conversation.
23 Arkansas-7.5@Mizzou over 138
They’re not quite the same over machine as last year, but I still love Gus Bus and the Hogs to put up points. If you wanna tease this down to Arkansas-4 and Over 132, you can, but I’ll probably take both of these straight up and a little SGP.
The college basketball season is full of ebbs and flows, no need to panic. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 