It’s the horrible time of year I’ve been talking about forever–the offseason for football and college basketball. I’m assuming we all did our part and enjoyed every last drop of the basketball season with a jaw-dropping game last night. Congrats to you readers who heeded my advice and bet on Kansas +450 and used a profit boost to wet the beak a bit more, I’m an idiot and had to lay an ignorant bet to hedge my shitty bracket.
Luckily, we get the perfect napping sport to ease us into the offseason with the most beautiful course in the entire world. I always said if I were to get a vasectomy with a bag of ice on my nuts for 4 days, I’d want it to be during the Masters where the undulated greens and beautiful azaleas help me fade in and out of consciousness. We get to go from a month long adrenaline rush Jim Nantz to a soothing “hello friends”. The perfect transition into 138 days without football.
Winners-5.5 units staked-10 to 14 units if won
After in-depth research, swing analysis and history at the Masters, I’ve come up with 10 golfers that will win us anywhere from 4.5 to 8.5 units if they win.
Contenders
John Rahm +1200 (boosted from +900 on Draft Kings)-1 unit
Draft kings is giving out a free +300 odds boost on any golfer to win the Masters, so why not use it on the 2nd best golfer in the world right now. I’m still down on Scottie Scheffler (what the best golfer in the world?!) after he barely made the cut a couple weeks ago at the Players Championship. Call me vindictive, but I call it a choke job on his part. No clutch gene? How can I trust you in the biggest golf tournament of the year, Scottie?! I’ll take Johnny +1200 anyday.
Cameron Smith +1400–.7 units
The dude made a late charge last year, and would’ve put me in the money of my Masters pool last year if it wasn’t for Kevin Kisner’s bum ass missing the cut. He’s red hot coming off a Player’s Championship, and not a bad sprinkle at all.
Dustin Johnson +1600-.6 units
I had to do some maneuvering to fit 2020 (November) Masters champion on this list, but he had to be here. I don’t love his value for top 5 or top 10, but they guy is consistently there to win it all. If you want to take a Rahm and Scheffler against the field mindset, use a profit boost on this guy. \
Value Picks
Collin Morikawa, Blake Koepka, Viktor Hovland, Xander Schauffele, Jordan Spieth (+2000)- .5 units
I’m lumping all these value guys together after Justin Thomas and Dustin Johnson and I took out Rory McIlroy of this list. I love JT, but his track record at Augusta leaves a lot to be desired with just one top 10 in 6 attempts. At +1200, I don’t love his value this weekend. As for the guys on this list, I love some of these dudes more than others, so maybe throw a bit more down on Xander, Viktor and Morikawa while tempering expectations for Spieth and Koepka. I love future Blake of the year Koepka, but it feels like he’s still not 100% healthy. I’ll still take a 50% Brooks over a 100% Bryson though.
Fun Sprinkle
Tony Finau +6000-.2 units
He’s a fun guy to root for and brings it for Augusta. He has 2 top 10s and a top 5 in 4 attempts at the Masters.
Top 5 finish-10 units staked-5 units won per golfer, 2 to break even
I actually left some contenders off this list because their value just wasn’t good enough to put on this list, but there are a ton of golfers who have a chance at a top-5 this weekend.
The Value Picks
Same as above DJ(+350)+Morikawa(+200)-Spieth(+450)-7.8 units combined
If they’re good enough to win, they’re good enough for 5th. I’m going to lump Morikawa, Schauffle, Hovland, Koepka and Spieth all in one group this blog.
Has a chance
Patrick Cantlay +500 -1 unit
Could probably fit with the above group, but his Masters history is pretty terrible after missing cuts in 2 of the last 4 tournaments. He’s one of the hottest golfers on tour right now though.
Fun Sprinkles
Will Zalatoris +600-.9 units
Happy Gilmore’s caddy was a last minute add to the Masters last year and had a late push to finish 2nd in his first trip to Augusta, why wouldn’t he follow it up with another top 5?
Talor Gooch+1800–.3 units
Lol.
Top 10 finish- 10 units staked-2.5 units won per golfer-4 to break even
With this group we’re really banking on our Value picks to make the top-5 because they don’t hold a ton of value for us top-10. This is where we want to pick up a ton of tier 2-4 guys who will win us a pool and some cash.
Dunks
Rory+200/Spieth+210/Cantlay+225-3.7 units combined
I like Spieth’s value for all 3 of these picks, but this is where I really like Rory McIlroy. I’m not willing to wager him sniffing the leaders, but you can’t definitely envision him in a tie for 7th with a boatload of other guys just happy to be in the top 10.
Sneaky contenders
Will Zalatoris+250/Louis Oosthuizen+350-1.8 units combined
I’m on the Zalatoris bandwagon after he broke onto the scene last year, and Louis is always a great dude to add to your pool in tier 4 to make the cut. He’s had some heartbreaking finishes at Augusta, but I like his value at +350 to round out the top 10.
Value plays
Shane Lowry+400, Corey Conners+450, Tony Finau+450, Paul Casey+450-2.2 units combined
There are a ton of value with Conners, Finau and Casey. The 3 of them have a combined 9 top-10 finishes at Augusta, and Conners has back-to-back top 10 finishes. Shane Lowry is the outlier here. His best finish at the Masters was last year when he tied for 21st, but the Irishman is playing great, finishing runner-up in March’s PGA National tournament.
Borderline plays
Tommy Fleetwood+600, Patrick Reed+600, Max Homa+600, Justin Rose+600-1.6 units combined
Who can forget the Justin Rose meltdown last year after leading much of the tournament. He still came in the top-10, making it 6 career top 10s at the Masters. Patrick Reed hasn’t been the same since battling bi-lateral pneumonia last year, but the 2018 Masters champion and noteable scumbag has back-to-back top 10s at Augusta. Fleetwood and Homa are the outliers, but Homa is playing tremendous golf this summer with 4 top 15s and a win at the Forinet Championship. He also personally guaranteed he’ll make the cut.
Fun Sprinkles
Talor Gooch +800-.3 units
Lol.
Kevin Kisner +800-.3 units
Every year my dumb brain puts Kevin Kisner in my Masters pool and every year the dude fails me. He’s missed the cut the last two years, I’m not sure why he’s on this list. If you want to take out Gooch, Kis, Fleetwod, Homa for Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, or Xander Schauffle, that’s understandable. I wouldn’t judge you.
We’re less than 24 hours away from a tradition unlike any other. Get your bets down, get your picks in and take some sick naps this weekend. You deserve it. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 