Some mid-majors wrapped up their conference tourney’s which helps put together the bottom half of the bracket while big conferences finished up their regular season. I was hoping for some clarity after the weekend, but the bubble looks murkier than ever. Let’s dive in.
Bubble Watch
Rutgers fucked themselves even more with a loss at home to Northwestern and somehow some bracket dorks have them IN WITH A BYE. An absolute joke. To me, they’re done unless they make a run to the semifinals in the B1G tournament.
Auburn had three stat Q1 games to finish the season, and were able to win one of them. Some are saying they need to beat Arkansas to ensure their spot in the field, but a win at home against the 5th ranked Kenpom team in Tennessee should lock them up without a play in game.
Mississippi State should not be punished for a loss on the road to a frisky Vanderbilt team, but some are making it out to be the end of the world. With a wins against Texas A&M, TCU and Marquette and a 12-1 non-conference record, the bulldogs should easily be in the tournament without a play-in game.
Nevada dropped a heartbreaker at home to in-state rival UNLV and stumbled on the road at Wyoming, but if they take care of San Jose State on Thursday, they should be in the play-in game at minimum.
If we’re going on the eye test, I’m saying Wisconsin is on the outside looking in, but their resume is similar to Mississippi State thanks to their non-conference record. I believe the B1G’s resume’s are inflated and losses to Nebraska and Rutgers should hurt more, but I’m not a stat nerd. I trust my eyeballs.
Penn State kept their bubble hopes alive with back to back wins against Northwestern and Maryland, but they’ll need to find a way past Illinois to get into the tournament.
What the fuck does Utah State have to do to get in the tournament? Some bracketologists still have them out of the field and all they’ve done is win 5 in a row after losing by 5 on the road to San Jose State. Their non-conference resume is loaded with mid-major regular season champs such as Utah Valley, Bradley, and Oral (lol) Roberts. This is more impressive to me than beating some middle of the road Pac-12 school like Wazzu. Put them in without a play-in game.
Vanderbilt feels like a true bubble team in this year’s tournament. The other teams we’ve discussed should either be in or out. They’ve won 8 of their last 9 and earned a bye to the quarterfinals as the 4th seed in the SEC. They’ll likely need to make it to at least the Semifinals due to a lackluster non-conference schedule and struggling against the top talent in the SEC. I’d have them in the “first four out” portion of the bubble.
Michigan is breaking my heart. They’ve played 3 overtime periods in the last 2 two games and lost them by a combined 6 points on the road. They lost the crucial bye in the B1G tournament and have to play Rutgers in a bubble watch showdown on Thursday. They’ve still been covering for those of you who listened to me say “it’s blindly bet Michigan” season, but they need to realistically make it to the B1G final to get to the tournament. A tough task with Purdue waiting in the quarters and Michigan state or the winner of the 12/5 matchup (5Iowa, 12Wisconsin, 13Ohio State) in the Semifinals.
Arizona State had a gauntlet of a schedule with 3 straight Q1 road games. They beat UofA on a buzzer beater, got their shit pushed in by UCLA, then shit the bed against USC. I like their draw for the Pac-12 tournament though. If they can get past Oregon State and avenge their loss to USC, I like their chances of making the field.
NC State/Clemson have similar resumes and are in similar positions. Whoever makes it farther in the ACC tournament will make the big dance (probably with a bye). Clemson has the advantage with a bye, but we should get a true bubble game on Thursday.
Bubble predictions:
Last 4 byes: Pitt, NC State, Auburn, Utah State
Play in games: Nevada, Wisconsin, Vanderbilt, Arizona State
Automatic qualifiers
Liberty and Kennesaw State had an instant classic in the ASUN final. Officials had the stones to call a foul with 1 second left to put Kennesaw state on the free throw line where the Owls punched their ticket to the big dance for the first time in program history.
As expected, UNC Asheville fought their way through the big south and won the Big South championship. Some mouth-breathing bracketologists still have them as a 16 seed which is an absolute shame.
South East Missouri State shocked Morehead State in the Semifinals and beat Tennessee Tech in OT to head to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2000.
Fairleigh Dickinson won the North East Conference.
I’m heartbroken for Bradley. I still think the Missouri Valley conference could have multiple bids some years with the addition of Belmont and Murray State, so why not have it in a year when the bubble is murkier than ever? I’m happy for Drake though; they seemed like the best team in the conference all year before a slip up at the end of the regular season.
So many conferences are starting their tournaments this week. Get your dual monitors set up at work. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 