Hand up, I’m a bigger CFB than NFL fan, but I also love sprinkling some “winners”. Here’s who the numbers say to pick. Ride or fade, let’s have a soooooper Wildcard Weekend.
I’m cautious betting on a rookie in the playoffs, but the numbers are what the numbers are. I’ll sprinkle the Texans +2; the numbers actually favor them outright, so do what you will with that information. The difference in this game is the turnover differential. Cleveland is -9 and the Texans are +10 on the season.
I really like the under even though these numbers make me nervous. We’ve heard about how their defense is “Super Bowl worthy”, but this isn’t the 2015 Denver Broncos–who they’ve been compared to. They’re great against the pass and are frontrunners, but they’re suspect against the run. Luckily for them the Texans won’t gash anyone on the ground. This makes me lean under.
I loooooove the Dolphins in this game. Everybody and their dog are counting the ‘fins out. With 60% of the cash and tickets on the Chiefs and only a hook movement, I’m hammering Miami. Luckily, the numbers back our claim. The Dolphins have an advantage in the passing game. With the second ranked wide receiving corps in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, they matchup well to the Chiefs’ 20th ranked secondary. The Chiefs’ defense is solid, but they’re frontrunners. Many of their top rated games are against teams they beat the snot out of and relied on their pass rush to get after the quarterback.
If the Dolphins are smart, I have faith in Mike McDaniel, they’d pound the rock against this 21st ranked run defense and let Achane/Mostert go to work. I’m concerned about their injuries on defense. They’re the top rated run defense in the NFL, but with all the injuries at linebacker, it’ll be tough to expect the same production. I still believe their offense is good enough to keep them in the game while the secondary shuts down the Chiefs’ receivers.
If the Chiefs want to win this game, they’d exploit the injuries at linebacker and run the ball while mixing in some plays to get Pacheco/Kelce in space in the screen game. Screens used to be Andy Reid’s bread and butter with the Eagles, but he’s gotten greedy with the Chiefs. Their defense is good enough to keep them in the game, but I’m not sure if Mahomes and Co. have the patience to run the ball and play ball control. Their special teams is incredible and could be the difference if they decide to play this style of game.
As far as the total, I’m cautiously taking the over. 79% of the cash and 76% of the tickets are on the under because of the -30 degree temps at Arrowhead. I’m fading the public and our numbers favor this action. The injuries on the Dolphins defense favor this number, and their offense has a huge matchup advantage to the Chiefs’ defense. A rare opportunity for us to take the over against public opinion, so let’s pounce.
This blog will continue to be updated prior to each game.
The Morning Flush 