The joes won big yesterday with the Chiefs and the Texans/Browns over, so it’s gotta flip to us pros today.
The numbers in the picture are rankings from Pro Football focus. PB=Pass Blocking, REC=Receivers, PRSH=pass rush, COV=coverage, RDEF=run def, etc. We take those rankings from the overall point differential (points for team 1 minus points against for team 2/#of games) to get estimated final score. However, this does not account for outliers like Miami’s 70 point domination over the Broncos, so that’s where our eyeballs come into play. We’ve had success with this model in the past, so let’s roll with it.
Green Bay@Dallas
The numbers heavily favor the Cowboys, and I forgot to include the turnover points. With an estimated score of 31-16, the PFF rankings algorithm heavily favors the Cowboys. That being said, it’s hard for me to get the Miami, Buffalo and Detroit games out of my head. Dallas played a cupcake schedule, so you have to ask yourself if there are 8 points worth of outliers to take the Packers. Similarly, the Packers started the season slow and have outliers from the beginning of the season. 6 of their 7 highest efficient games came after week 9, and their most efficient run game stats were when Aaron Jones came back at the end of the season.
As far as the total, the numbers lean toward the under, but a lot of these numbers are skewed toward the Packers’ early season struggles. For me, 3 points is within the standard deviation of the total, so I would stay away from this game if I was going off the PFF numbers.
Betting trends show 79% of the cash and 80% of the tickets are on the Cowboys as of midnight today, and the line hasn’t budged from -7. This is an auto bet on the Packers for me. I’m not going to hammer them since the PFF numbers favor Dallas, but I’m comfortable putting a unit on them. In regards to the total, the public is on the over and it’s moved a point from 49.5 to 50.5. I’m going to stay away since the PFF numbers are so close to the total and there’s not enough line movement to affirm the public’s trends.
Los Angeles Rams@Detroit
The numbers LOVE the over in this game. The Rams Pass blocking grade is suspect, however the Lions don’t have a vaunted pass rush outside Aidan Hutchinson. Both teams have an edge with their receiving corps against the other’s secondary, and they also have elite run games. Each team has a great run defense, but their tackling is in the bottom half of the NFL. I organize this stat with the rushing defense to come up with point estimates. Both offenses blow the defenses out of the water.
They’re two identical teams, and if you swapped schedules and put the Lions in the NFC West and the Rams in the NFC North, the Rams might be hosting this game. With a back and forth, high scoring game on the horizon–it’s going to come down to who makes the most mistakes. Although Goff has been more ignorant with the football as of late, I like the Lions to create more turnovers than the Rams. Their defense is opportunistic and will get enough pressure on Stafford to get at least 1 from him.
The PFF numbers algorithm projects the score to be 26-33.5, which is 7.5 points over the current total. The Public is on the over as well with 86% of the cash and 81% of the tickets, but I have to trust the numbers here. I’m not hammering it by any means, but there is enough evidence here to place a unit on the over.
The public is predicting the Rams as the upset pick of the weekend. 60% of the cash and tickets are on the Rams and the line has held at +3. I love the Lions in this spot. The media is selling this “Stafford is going to Detroit to spoil the Rams season”, but the Lions have the firepower to keep up with McVay’s offense and just need a turnover or two to flip the script. Hammer the Lions.
Packers, Lions, LAR/DET over 52. What if we just win all our bets today?
The Morning Flush 