Hand up, we got a little greedy with the picks yesterday after chasing from the night before, but we had a HUGE win with the Packers. Those betting trends turned into a HAMMER play as more people kept betting the Cowboys and the line still didn’t budge. Regardless of PFF numbers, that’s what we call a “line freeze” in the biz, and we’ll hammer those and reverse line movement all day. Time to get back to green today.
The numbers in the picture are rankings from Pro Football focus. PB=Pass Blocking, REC=Receivers, PRSH=pass rush, COV=coverage, RDEF=run def, etc. We take those rankings from the overall point differential (points for team 1 minus points against for team 2/#of games) to get estimated final score. However, this does not account for outliers like Miami’s 70 point domination over the Broncos, so that’s where our eyeballs and dumb brains come into play.
PITTSBURGH@BUFFALO
Sorry to everyone who has to work during MLK day and will miss this game, but take a couple minutes to take a “bathroom break” and put some of your dwindling bankroll on this this game. Our numbers love the Steelers in this game. The PFF algorithm estimate, which would be fired if it were working for me the last two days, estimates a 23-19 Bills victory. This is well within the 10, so I’ll be taking this. The Steelers run game has a huge advantage in the run game. Their rankings are middle of the pack, but they improved down the stretch with their 4 of their 5 best run blocking grades coming in week 13 or later. They’re also opportunistic on defense and take care of the ball on offense with a +11 turnover differential. I love my guy Josh Allen, but he’ll give you at least one.
As far as the total, we’re pretty close to the number with our estimate at 42 and the live line at 38.5. Usually I’d be taking this, but the weather in Buffalo has to favor the under. I might check the forecast closer to kickoff and see if the winds are “swirling”. If we have a straight snow, I like the over; If shit’s blowing sideways (like the New England Monday Night game a couple years ago) I’ll stay away. Josh did play at Wyoming where we’re used to a million mile per hour winds…maybe I’ll sprinkle the Bills if the weather is looking like Casper. This is how my dumb brain works. I use illogical variables to justify my business decisions–stupid.
Betting trends slightly favor the Steelers as well. With 70% of the cash and tickets on the Bills, we should see more than a hook movement from 9.5 to 10, but this line hasn’t come off 10 since Saturday. Couple this with our PFF numbers, this is a hammer play on the Steelers. As a de facto member of Bills mafia, I’m emotionally hedging with this bet and hoping the Bills still win outright.
The total’s betting trends are a bit more complicated with 63% of the cash and 57% of tickets on the under. I guess the Joes are afraid of wind? The total opened at 39 and is currently at 38.5. I like to see the numbers over 60% to consider this a play, however, I don’t think I can help myself. I have to take this over if the Joes are on the under.
Philadelphia@Tampa Bay
The PFF numbers say to take the Eagles, but our eyeballs have seen the Eagles choke away their 10-1 start to finish 11-6. Their biggest “advantage” is in the passing game, but 2 of their 3 lowest passing efficiency games were week 15 against the Seahawks and week 18 against the Giants–they’ve backed into the playoffs. Our PFF algorithm estimate has the game at 25-18, so we have 4 points to work around with the line at Eagles -3. The only advantage the Buccaneers have in this game is in the turnover differential. The Eagles have been careless with the football with a differential of -10 and the Bucs are +10. Outside of this, the Bucs are middle of the pack in every statistical category except tackling where they rank 5th. They have a huge disadvantage in the run game. They’re ranked dead last in the NFL in running the football against a top 5 defense in the Eagles, so if you’re backing the Bucs, you’ll need some magic from Baker Mayfield. Not unprecedented in the playoffs, but I’ll be sprinkling the Eagles -3.
Our estimated total is the same as the live total, so I’ll stay away. Gun to my head, I’d take the under knowing the Eagles offensive numbers are inflated from their early season success. We also talked about how the Bucs will be 1 dimensional which lends itself toward the under.
The betting trends lean toward the Eagles, but it’s pretty close to a 50/50 split between the two teams. With 54% of the cash and 53% of the tickets on the Bucs, its too close to call either side a hammer play. The glimmer of hope for us Eagles bettors is there was a half point of “reverse” line movement from -2.5 to -3 in favor of the Eagles. This gives me a little more confidence with taking the Eagles.
The total is a complete toss up. The line opened at 44.5 and is down to 43, so congratulations if you took the under at the start of the week, you have 1.5 points of closing line value. 55% of the cash is on the under, but only 45% of the tickets are backing the under. With a Pros vs Joes split like this, I’ll favor whoever has the line movement. Like I said before, I’d stay away from this one, but I would take the under if you’re trying to find a leg for your same game parlay.
Don’t overthink it. Hammer the Steelers, take the Eagles, and put the over in Pit/Buffalo and the under in TB/PHI in your same game parlays. Enjoy your day of football. We have to wait 5 more days for another one.
The Morning Flush 