We’ve looked in the mirror, we’ve taken accountability, and we had a stern talk with the PFF football numbers. They made us look like a fool last week, and it can’t happen again. Unfortunately the numbers show chalk and like the over in 3 out of the 4 matchups. Did some Joe Public create these PFF numbers? Probably. We might need to use more gambling trends this weekend.
The numbers in the picture are rankings from Pro Football focus. PB=Pass Blocking, REC=Receivers, PRSH=pass rush, COV=coverage, RDEF=run def, etc. We take those rankings from the overall point differential (points for team 1 minus points against for team 2/#of games) to get estimated final score. However, this does not account for outliers like Miami’s 70 point domination over the Broncos, so that’s where our eyeballs come into play. We’ve had success with this model in the past, so let’s roll with it.
Houston@Baltimore
PFF Numbers
The PFF numbers love Baltimore, and after watching a bunch of talking heads on sports networks, I might agree with them. Everyone and their dog is putting CJ Stroud in the same conversation as Josh Allen/Patrick Mahomes. Although I don’t disagree, I think he’ll be great too, I can’t tell us pros to take the Texans if all the Joes are taking the Texans.
We’re pretty close to the total, but I disagree with the PFF numbers that point to the over. This feels like it will be a Baltimore beatdown where they get up 3 scores, milk the clock, and play good defense.
Betting Trends
About 60% of the cash is on the Ravens, the tickets are split 50/50, and the line has moved from -9.5 to -10. When it comes to making a pick, there’s not a huge trend to go off of to make a pick here.
In regard to the total, it started at 46 and has steamed down to 44 despite 71% of the cash and 78% of the tickets on the over. This is significant reverse line movement in favor of the under.
The Verdict
I would stay away from either side in this one, but gun-to-head, I’m taking the Ravens. There’s just too many points at stake here. The Ravens could be up 24-7 late, running the clock out, put in their backups on the last drive, and give up a backdoor cover. I do like the under based on our betting trends and because it feels like Baltimore will kick their teeth in.
Green Bay@San Francisco
PFF Numbers
I said it last week, and I’ll say it again. I will not trust any PFF numbers against the Packers. There are so many outliers from the beginning of their season that are screwing with the numbers. For example, the PFF numbers show their running back ranking at 10 and their run blocking ranking at 21. Since Aaron Jones has returned to the lineup, the Packers have looked incredible on the ground including against a top 10 ranked run defense in the Cowboys.
Because so many of the numbers are skewed offensively for the Packers, it’s hard to trust the PFF numbers that favor the under. The Niners have an offensive advantage in just about every PFF category, so they should fly past their estimated 25 points from the point differential.
Betting Trends
With 68% of the cash and 61% of the tickets on the Niners, it might be time to hammer the Cheeseheads again this week. Last week we had to take the Pack with over 70% of the public on the Cowboys; this Niners game is trending in the same direction.
77% of the cash and 75% of the tickets are on the over in this one, but there’s not much action on the total as of 1:00 Mountain time. The line has moved from 50.5 to 51 for what it’s worth, but we might have to check in closer to kickoff to get a read on this total.
Opinion
I’m putting a unit on Green Bay now and checking in closer to kickoff. If the line hasn’t moved or if there’s more action on the Niners, I’m hammering the Packers. My gut says to take the over in this one. I’m slightly concerned with a large portion of the public on the over so far, but the PFF numbers are actually pretty close to the total and are fucking the Packers offensively. I’m going to root for points.
After a rough week, it’s time to bounce back in a big way starting with the HOU/BAL under and the Packers tonight with a potential sprinkle on the over What if we just win all our bets this weekend? *Responsibly, of course
The Morning Flush 