The numbers in the picture are rankings from Pro Football focus. PB=Pass Blocking, REC=Receivers, PRSH=pass rush, COV=coverage, RDEF=run def, etc. We take those rankings from the overall point differential (points for team 1 minus points against for team 2/#of games) to get estimated final score. However, this does not account for outliers like Miami’s 70 point domination over the Broncos, so that’s where our eyeballs come into play. We’ve had success with this model in the past, so let’s roll with it.
Yesterday was an incredible day of sports. We started off in the morning with an instant classic between Baylor and Texas, a triple OT thriller with Creighton and Seton Hall, and West Virginia upset Kansas (potential foreshadow of today’s Chiefs game?). I know these days are dedicated to football, but do yourself a favor and treat yourself to some College hoops before diving into the NFL.
The Pro Football Focus numbers went 3-1 yesterday, betting trends went 1-0-1, and somehow I found a way to go against the grain and go 1-1-1. Listen, I’m not telling you to take my opinions, I give you the facts and you can make your own judgements. Let’s get into today’s action.
Tampa Bay@Detroit
PFF Numbers
The numbers tell us to hammer the Lions in this game. Again, the Buccaneers are in the bottom 3 of the league in both running back and run blocking efficiency, so if you’re looking to take the Bucs, you need a big day from Baker Mayfield. The Lions have the edge in every offensive category and their Special Teams is head and shoulders above the Bucs. The Lions’ biggest advantage is in the passing game. They’re in the top 10 in every offensive category while the Bucs are in the bottom 3rd of the league in every defensive passing category. Some of these numbers are skewed toward early season success, but not by much. The best advantage the Bucs have is in turnover differential. They’re +8 while the Lions are +2 on the season. If they’re going to have a chance, Baker needs to take care of the football and the defense needs to be opportunistic. Luckily for them, the Lions have been a bit careless with the football down the stretch.
With the Lions’ offensive advantages, the numbers favor the over, but only by 2 points. Our PFF algorithm projects a 31-20 game for a total of 51 points whereas the actual total is at 49.5. This isn’t enough to move the needle for me.
Betting Trends
The public is all over the Lions with 68% of the cash and 65% of the tickets on Detroit. The line “started off” at 4.5 and is up to 6 now, and it was as high as 6.5. This shows 1.5 points of closing line value if you somehow took the Lions -4.5 RIGHT AFTER the Bucs game on Monday night.
The total is up to 49.5 from the opening line of 49 and a low point of 48.5. The public is naturally on the over with 67% of the cash and 69% of the tickets on the over. This is reverse line movement, so we’re take the under.
Opinion
Usually I’d tell you to fade the public, but sometimes we gotta give the power to the people. The PFF numbers tell us to hammer the Lions, but I’m just going to sprinkle them along with the under. Similar to the Ravens yesterday, this feels like the Lions are going to bite off the Bucs knee caps and milk the clock the rest of the game. Give me a Lions moneyline/under 54 same game parlay, and take the under outright.
Kansas City@Buffalo
PFF Trends
The Bills have advantages in the passing game both offensively and defensively. They’re top 5 in the NFL in coverage defensively, and Josh Allen is 2nd in passing efficiency offensively. Both teams have an advantage against the others’ run defense. The Chiefs have a significant 3.5 point advantage here against a depleted Bills linebacking corps. The Bills have an advantage in the run game, but some of these numbers are also a result of Josh Allen’s scrambling ability. If the Chiefs are going to have a chance, they need to run the ball and rely on their stellar special teams to expose the Bills’ terrible special teams.
The PFF numbers like the over in this game. Most of the advantages for both teams lean toward the offense with the exception of the Chiefs’ passing game. The Bills defense has a two point advantage here. Although it’s chilly, 14 mph winds shouldn’t have too much of an impact on this game.
Betting Trends
This game opened at -2.5 for the Bills, climbed to 3 for a couple hours, and has froze at 2.5 since. It’s a pretty even split with 56% of the cash and 54% of the tickets on the Bills, so we can’t really make a decision based off this data.
After “opening” at 47.5, the total has been at 46 for most of the week with 53% of the cash and 68% of the tickets on the over. This is more of a line freeze than reverse line movement, but I would lean toward the under regardless based off these numbers.
Opinion
Although Josh Allen gets a lot of shit for his turnovers in the regular season, he has 20 passing touchdowns to just 4 interceptions in the playoffs. The Bills were +11 to the Chiefs -2 in turnover differential and I think this is the difference in this game. I’m taking the Bills and hedging with a Chiefs+5.5/under 53.5 same game parlay in case Andy Reid doesn’t get greedy and relies on the run game.
5 games. That’s all we have left in the NFL regular season. We need to savor these last moments of football before the 6 month dark period. What if we *responsibly* win all our bets today?
The Morning Flush 