*The numbers in the picture are rankings from Pro Football focus. PB=Pass Blocking, REC=Receivers, PRSH=pass rush, COV=coverage, RDEF=run def, etc. We take those rankings from the overall point differential (points for team 1 minus points against for team 2/#of games) to get estimated final score. However, this does not account for outliers like Miami’s 70 point domination over the Broncos, so that’s where our eyeballs come into play. We’ve had success with this model in the past, so let’s roll with it.*
3 games. That’s all we have left before darkness falls upon us and we’re left clinging to mock drafts to give us any football content for 6 months. Savor them. Be one with the football. I’m betting every game responsibly and responsibly taking prop bets to get my fix. Let’s hope the PFF numbers keep up the good work from last week.
Kansas City@Baltimore
PFF Numbers-Sides
The PFF numbers show a huge advantage in every category, other than Special Teams, going toward the Ravens. The model projects a huge 2 point advantage for the Ravens on the ground. Although both defenses are lackluster against the run, the Ravens multiple threats in the backfield coupled with a top 10 run blocking offensive line have a 2.5 point advantage against an improving Kansas City Defense. Their passing game also has an advantage. The Ravens’ receiving corps. ranks 11th in the NFL, and they’ll get additional help with Mark Andrews coming back this week to face a middle of the pack Chiefs secondary. Kansas City’s pass rush is also average by league standards whereas the Ravens Pass blocking is elite; ranked 3rd in the NFL. This gives them a 1.5 point advantage in the passing game according to our model.
Kansas City’s advantages come against the Ravens’ run defense and in special teams. We talked about it last week, but the Chiefs NEED to be patient in this game by running the ball and playing field position if they want to win. They can’t be sloppy with the ball like they were in the the regular season with a -11 turnover differential. The Ravens are opportunistic on defense and take care of the ball on offense with a +12 point differential, so they’re at a huge disadvantage there. The Chiefs’ inconsistent receivers are also hurting their passing game. They’re ranked 16th in the league and are facing a 2nd ranked secondary leading which gives the Ravens a 2 point advantage on defense.
PFF Numbers–Totals
The estimated final score is between 17-28 and 17-29, or 45-46 total points. This is really close to the actual total at 44. Remember, the numbers don’t account for some outliers or recent performance trends, so it’s difficult to rely on this data to make a decision.
Betting Trends-Sides
58% of the cash are on the Ravens, but we have a 50/50 split with the tickets placed on this game. The line has moved from 2.5 to 4.5 and has steadily steamed toward the Ravens since Mark Andrews was activated for this game.
Betting Trends-Total
76% of cash and 77% of tickets are on the over, and the line has moved from 44.5 to 44. If you’ve been following this blog you know we call that reverse line movement, and it is a red flag for us to fade the public. Do what you will with this information.
Opinion
HAMMER THE UNDER. Our PFF numbers are too close to take the over in this game, and the betting trends are telling us to hammer under this total. I’ll take the Ravens in this game because there’s been solid movement toward Baltimore all week, and our PFF numbers love them in this matchup. However, I’m putting several units on this under and 1 unit on the Ravens.
A couple sprinkles
I like to use PFF numbers for this. Hopefully Andy Reid looks at the data and sees he needs to run the football to win this game; I have faith in Isaiah Pacheco to get us over 63.5. The Ravens have too many guys who touch the ball to rely on someone to get us over rushing yards, but Justice Hill over 32.5 looks tasty. I also like a sprinkle on Mark Andrews anytime touchdown scorer.
Detroit@San Francisco
PFF Numbers Sides
The Niners have a huge advantage in both the run and passing games. They have the top rated receiving corps going against a bottom 3 Detroit secondary. Their Pass blocking isn’t great at 26, but they’re matched up against a Detroit pass rush that’s ranked in the bottom half of the league. What’s killing the Lions on the ground isn’t their run defense–they’re ranked in the top 5 in run fits–but their tackling is ranked 23rd in the league. Against a physical team where their running backs rank number 1 and their run blocking is ranked number 2, the Lions will have a tough time stopping the Niners ground game.
The Lions glimmer of hope is in their run game on offense and their special teams. Their running backs are ranked top 10 in the league and their run blocking is second in the league, so they have a marginal advantage there. They are top 10 in special teams where as San Francisco is ranked 25th. Similarly to the Chiefs, the Lions will need to run the ball and play the field position game to win this one.
PFF Numbers-Total
The numbers love the over in this game with the Niners’ offensive advantages. The only thing that gives me hesitation with this total is how high San Francisco’s point differential was before adjusting for PFF rankings. They didn’t have a cupcake schedule by any means, but a lot of these numbers reflect Detroit’s defensive woes in the middle of the season. Their defense gave up 441 points which was 4th most in the NFL. Their defense hasn’t exactly been the Steel Curtain, but they’ve improved, especially in the red zone. Their opponents went from scoring 64.5% of the time in the redzone to 43% of the time in their last 3 games.
Betting Trends-Sides
Shockingly, the numbers are extremely close in this game. 54% of the cash are on the Niners while 53% of the tickets are on the Lions. The line has not budged from -7 for the Niners since opening. There’s not an advantage to either side based on the betting trends, but it might be worth checking again closer to kickoff to see if there’s any late money on one team or another.
Betting Trends-Total
68% of the cash and tickets are on the over, and the total has steamed up with the public from 50.5 to 52.5. This doesn’t necessarily give us a reason to take the over, but if you were on the over early in the week, you should be feeling pretty good about your ticket.
Opinion
Early on in the week, I figured the public would be on San Francisco, so I was planning on waiting until the last minute to get some value. However, I’m starting to lean toward San Francisco after seeing the public numbers. I guess a lot of people were turned off by their performance against the Packers last week and the Deebo Samuel news? That’s all public perception, and I like to fade that nonsense. Give me San Francisco.
Our numbers love the over, and I have to agree. We have to be a little cautious here. With Deebo Samuel out, that receiving ranking is inflated, but they still have enough weapons to carve up the Lions’ secondary. Detroit’s defense has improved, but the Niners will be able to play the game on their terms with an advantage in the run game. The Lions have enough firepower to keep pace so give me the over.
Sprinkles
Someone has to pick up Deebo Samuel’s slack, so it must be Brandon Aiyuk right?…If I’m Aaron Glenn, I’m adjusting my coverage to take him away. Give me George Kittle over 60.5 yards. The Lions gave up over 1,000 yards and 7 TDs to tight ends all season including 65 yards and a touchdown to Cade Otton last week. It’s a little easier to rotate coverage for receivers than it is for tight ends, so I like Kittle to go off. After Deebo Samuel went down last week, George Kittle was Purdy’s favorite target, but it wasn’t Aiyuk or CMC getting the second most targets–it was Jauan Jennings with 5 cathes for 61 yards. I’m going to HAMMER over 17.5 receiving yards for him.
The Lions use a committee approach to their backfield, but Jahmyr Gibbs prop bets have been good to me when the numbers favor the Lions’ run game. We’re getting half a point from the PFF model, so I would responsibly take Jahmyr Gibbs over 49.5 yards.
Savor this last Sunday of football. Regardless of the outcomes, I’m going to try to be thankful for the football on my TV today. What if we RESPONSIBLY win all our bets today?
The Morning Flush 