The last time we talked about College Basketball, we praised the Big12 and took a dump on the ACC/PAC12/B1G. After a week of intensely watching basketball from my couch I can report….I still feel the same. The ACC is trending in the right direction with teams like Virginia and NC State having better weeks. The roller coaster of a season from Clemson continues, after I dubbed them the 3rd best team in the conference, with a road upset over UNC last night. Regardless, there are only a handful of teams in the country I would feel confident to win it all, and none of them are in these conferences.
My Big 3
UCONN
You’re out of your got damn mind if you thought I’d keep the reigning national champions off this list. The Big East is competitive with a log jam of bubble teams at 6-5 to 5-6 in the conference. UConn has ran through that conference and looks like a much better team since their double digit loss to Seton Hall. According to KenPom, they’re 3rd in offensive efficiency and in the top 15 in defensive efficiency while playing at a snail’s pace. They can force even the most up tempo offenses to play in the mud and suffocate them. It helps having Donovan Clingan, a 7 footer, who has been able to make up for losing Adama Sanogo after last year.
Houston
I’d be a hypocrite to call the Big 12 the best conference in College Basketball and not include Houston. I’m sure this will make Jayhawks fans punch air since they just beat the Cougs by double digits at home, but slow your roll Kansas, we’ll get to you. Houston is the number 1 rated team according to Kenpom based on their top 20 offense and their number 1 defense. Combine this with their 12th slowest pace, and they’re able to suffocate teams. With how talented the Big12 is, Houston might lose in the conference tournament and drop down to a 2 seed. With better odds to win the tournament, they’ll be worth a sprinkle.
Tennessee
Call it recency bias, blindness, or just stupidity, but the Vols are 16-3 against teams that don’t end in Carolina, and similar to UConn with their Big East schedule, have a gauntlet SEC schedule. Granted, outside of a home beatdown of Alabama, they haven’t been tested. That will change the last two weeks of the season when they play Auburn, Alabama, South Carolina and a home rematch against Kentucky. They have a championship caliber roster though. With experienced guard play in Zakai Zeigler and Dalton Knecht, you can trust their backcourt to take care of the ball. Defensively, they have the size (outside of our short king Zeigler) to matchup with other teams’ bigs with 6’11 Jr. Jonas Aidoo. They’re the 3rd best defense, top 20 offensively and can play at any pace.
The snubs
Purdue
As a fellow B1G supporter, it hurts to leave Purdue off this list, and maybe my best argument against putting them on their list–is that they’re Purdue. I can also accept the feedback and partially agree that it’s ridiculous to put Tennessee in the conversation and leave Purdue out when Purdue beat the Vols in Maui at the beginning of the season. Outside of Iowa, who can’t matchup with anyone let alone a 7 foot monster like Zach Edey, they haven’t played anyone in the top 55 in Tempo. The Wisconsin win was impressive and their resume is good enough for the number one overall seed, but I’m afraid they’ll breeze their way into the tournament, face a team that can push the pace on them and can matchup with Edey like Arizona, Kentucky or Alabama.
Kansas
I’ve been critical of the Jayhawks. Some days they look like they can win a natty, other days they’re can’t buy a bucket and lose to the likes of West Virginia. The unfortunate reality for Kansas fans is, as physical as you guys are, your team isn’t elite defensively and will need to make shots to win big games. They’ve gotten away with it against inferior opponents, but it’s still bit them in the ass a couple times against Marquette, UCF and Kansas State. The Resume is still worthy of a 1 seed if they take care of business in the Big 12 tournament, but they better pray for a good draw in order to make a deep tournament run in the big dance.
Marquette
As good as Marquette has been, that Butler loss sticks out like a turd in the punch bowl in my brain. They went into halftime up 7, feeling good, then went cold in the second half and let Butler shoot 45% from 3. Call it a stroke of bad luck, but Marquette has been inconsistent at times offensively. Their defense is usually good enough to pick up the slack, but I’m concerned if they have a draw against teams that can push the pace and score in transition. They’re also in a league where they could easily get upset in the conference tournament, fall a couple spots in the rankings, and wind up with a worse seed.
Risers
Arizona
Similar to Purdue, Arizona’s conference schedule is weighing them down, but I love Arizona’s chances if they can take care of business and win the Pac12. They should be a 2 seed at worst in that scenario. With a top 10 offense and top 15 defense/tempo, I would love their chances against a team like Purdue if they find themselves in that part of the bracket. Could you imagine? Zach Edey and Oumar Ballo, a couple 7 footers, going at it in the Elite Eight? That would be awesome. I worry about their depth, but Arizona could be a nice dark horse pick to win the whole thing.
South Carolina
I’m fully aboard the SC hype train. The dismantling of Kentucky at home caught my eye, the Tennessee road win turned my head, and last night’s ability to overcome a late surge from Ole Miss solidified my confidence in the Gamecocks. After a road trip to Auburn, their schedule opens up for them a bit to string some wins together, potentially win the SEC regular season, and cement their tournament hopes. With how competitive the SEC is this year, it would be impossible to keep them out of 1 seed conversations in March if they win the SEC tournament.
Iowa State
Since taking a double digit asswhoopin’ to BYU on the road, the Cyclones have won 4 of their last 5 with their lone loss being to Baylor, on the road, at the buzzer. Call me biased, but they’re in the catbird’s seat to finish in the top 4 of the Big 12 which would automatically advance them to the quarterfinals. I might not love them to win a natty, but you’re telling me this team can’t string together 3 wins and win the conference tourney? They’re worth a Big 12 sprinkle. If they win that tournament, you gotta be looking at them as a potential 3 seed who could make some noise. They might not shoot the lights out, but they’re a top 5 defensive team and will play at any pace.
What about Duke? Irrelevant. We need to start showing more love to some of these smaller conferences and call out some upsets before we see them in the tournament. I might be wrong about every single one of these teams, but you better believe I’ll be insufferable if we get one upset prediction right. Enjoy this week’s slate of CBB before the “Big Game”. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 