We made it, and I don’t want to hear about how “you’re not going to watch the game”, “all they’re going to do is show Taylor Swift”, or “who cares about this matchup”. It’s the last game of the year and we have copious amounts of buffalo chicken dip, jalapeno poppers, and wings to indulge in–while watching commercials that try too hard, and a rushed halftime performance. Really, if you don’t like the football on the screen, close your eyes and pretend like you’re watching Iowa vs Northwestern–the NFL is basically the same quality of football. Regardless, it’s the last game of the season, so let’s enjoy it.
PFF Numbers
Passing Game
The 49ers pass defense has a huge advantage in the passing game with their 3rd ranked pass rush and 3rd ranked coverage according to Pro Football Focus. The Chiefs’ offensive line might be able to hold up with a top 10 offensive line, but their receivers are at a huge disadvantage–ranked 17th in the NFL. The algorithm gave 2 points to San Francisco’s defense based on these numbers.
Run Game
The Niners also have a huge advantage in the run game offensively, and a slight edge defensively. They’re getting 3.5 points in our algorithm with the top rated backfield and run blocking grade in the NFL against a Chiefs defense that was middle of the pack against the run and tackling. Chiefs running backs are ranked 10th in the NFL and offensive line is ranked 17th in run blocking against a 15th ranked run defense that was ranked 6th in tackling.
Specials
The Chiefs special teams got a point back and the Niners lost a point based on their rankings. Harrison Butker is one of the most consistent kickers in the NFL and helped the Chiefs 4th ranked special teams. The Niners rely on Jake Moody who was 84% on the season and doesn’t have the strongest leg. They have the 23rd ranked special teams unit.
The algorithm took two points from the Chiefs due to their recklessness with the ball with a -11 turnover differential during the regular season. The Niners gained a point with a +10 differential.
With an estimated score of 25-19, the algorithm loves the Niners and says to stay away from the total. We usually use a score of 3 points as a standard deviation from the actual line, so the Niners pick is statistically relevant as the algorithm has them at -6 while the live line is -2. With the total at 47 and the estimated total at 46, the estimate is within the standard deviation and not recommended.
Betting Trends
Side
As of 2:30 PM mountain time, 75% of the cash and 72% of the tickets are on the Chiefs and the line has moved from San Francisco -2.5 to SF -2. A few hours after the opening line of -2.5, the line moved drastically toward the Chiefs to San Francisco -1 and has been steadily climbing toward the Niners despite public action on the Chiefs. This should be considered reverse line movement toward San Francisco.
Total
Like most events, the public is on the over with 68% of the cash and 66% of the tickets on the over. The total has danced between 47.5 to 47, so either a line freeze or reverse line movement toward the under.
Opinion
Chiefs Props
If the Chiefs have a chance, they’ll have to do what they’ve been doing all playoffs and run the damn ball. I really like Isaiah Pacheco over 64.5 rushing yards against a middle of the pack Niners run defense.
I might also sprinkle Harrison Butker over 7.5 kicking points. I can see the Chiefs moving the ball on the Niners defense, but I think San Francisco’s too good to give up many touchdowns. It’ll be a close enough game where KC will be settling for 3 early and often.
49ers Props
There are too many stars on San Francisco’s side of the ball to choose one specific prop, and we’re not getting much value with Christian McCaffrey over 94.5 rushing yards. That being said, Brock Purdy over 12.5 rushing yards is a sneaky great prop pick. He had to make several plays with his legs to come back against Detroit in the Championship game and had 48 rushing yards. He also had 14 yards against the Packers. I’m taking it.
The Pick
The combination of the numbers and the betting trends has me licking my chops. Patrick Mahomes is inevitable and owns all my teams, but this might be my only opportunity to get back at him. There are a couple anomalies holding me back when it comes to the PFF numbers. The Chiefs were ignorant with the football during the regular season and played with their food a lot, but they’ve played clean football with a +2 turnover differential and 350+ rushing yards in the playoffs. They also held the 3rd (Miami) and 4th (Baltimore) ranked rushing offenses to less than 100 yards rushing. It’s like they’re bored with the regular season and know they can just “turn it on” when it counts in the playoffs. The Niners are our only hope to keep this type of entitlement out of football. Run the ball down their damn throats and keep the Chiefs from hanging another banner.
I see this game starting off SLOW. Like T-Swizzle might be falling asleep in her box. Each team might spend a quarter and a half feeling each other out. I wouldn’t be surpised if it was 9-7 going into half. The Chiefs are great at winning the “middle 8”, or scoring on their last possession before haltime and their first possession after halftime. This is when the fireworks will start and the Niners will start imposing their ground game on the Chiefs. They’ll be able to get a stop when it matters and chew clock to bring the Lombardi back to The Bay. I’m HAMMERING the Niners knowing damn well Mahomes, Kelce and Taylor Swift are going to rip my heart out.
It’s the last game of the season. Nobody cares if you “don’t care about this matchup” or “hope both teams lose”. Let’s stay positive, eat our munchies, and double up on tums before Monday–and the start of the offseason–comes. Happy Sunday.
The Morning Flush 