Readers, I understand why…
See, it’s burnin’ me to hold on to this
I know this is something I gotta do
But that don’t mean I want to
What I’m tryna say is that, I… love you, I just…
I feel like this… is comin’ to an end
And it’s better for me to… let it go now
Than hold on and hurt you
But I gotta…PICK THE UNDER…
Hey..how ya doin?…you miss me?…I missed you…I’m sorry I’ve been gone for so long…I know I said I’d give you Omaha picks but…some things came up ya know? Life happens, but I love you. Football is back, the algorithm is back, my life is (kinda) slowing down..but posts might still be sporadic. I wouldn’t miss the start of football though, so let’s get into it!
Opening Day TNF: DAL@TB(-8) (52) Pick: Under
My professional advice is to stay the fuck away from this game. A lot of the stats and advanced stats are based on the revolving door of quarterbacks Dallas went through and Tampa’s Defense coming on strong toward the end of last year. I think we’ll all fall victim to recency bias after seeing the Bucs D rail the Chiefs O in the Super Bowl, but the same defense gave up the 11th most passing yards in the NFL last season. I’m sure there will be some rust from Dak Prescott and that offense, but the Bucs didn’t add any pieces to make that defense better. If you need any more stats to justify a decision: the Dallas defense was 11th against the pass last year and the Bucs were one of the most one dimensional offenses last year. If I had to bet anything, I’d say take the under, but I’m steering clear of this game.
College Football Week 2
To be honest with you, I throw all these NFL analytics out the window and go based solely off the eye test with College Football. It’s so hard to gauge a team who played a non-conference opponent running a system they will not see during conference play, but it’s also 10x more fun picking (and watching) these games.
Spread:
12 Oregon @ 3 Ohio State(-14.5) (63.5) Pick: Oregon (reluctantly)
I’m picking this game because it’s a marquee matchup…but I’m not confident in it. I do think this will be an exciting game to watch, but there’s not much value on either side for me to make a pick. I expect Oregon’s defense to keep them in it (I actually have that much faith that Fresno State is that good of a team for them to put up 24 on them).
South Carolina(-2) @ East Carolina (56.5) Pick: South Carolina
I love East Carolina’s colors and everything about the University…but this line makes absolutely NO SENSE. South Carolina blanked an FCS opponent last week, is an SEC school with SEC talent and they’re only getting 2 points against an ECU squad that scored 10 garbage time points against a great App State team to tell mom they had a good game…Did they commit an NCAA violation I don’t know about. I’m falling into the trap, I’m hammering the Cocks.
Pitt (-3) @ Tennessee (57) Pick: Pitt
Pitt took care of business against a terrible ZOOMASS team, Tennessee was actively trying to cover the spread against Bowling Green and failed to do so. Expect Josh Heupel’s face to look 10x fatter after this loss.
15 Texas(-7) @ Arkansas (56) Pick: Texas
This line also makes zero sense to me. Texas steamrolled a Louisiana-Lafeyette team that was really good last year, and Arkansas was losing to Rice the majority of their game last week before covering the spread late in the fourth, much to the dismay of degenerates such as myself. I’ll take the cheese and take Texas in another rat line. Is tExAs BaCk?!?!
Liberty-4 @ Troy (61) Pick: Liberty
Another line that doesn’t make sense. Liberty is a fucking wagon, Troy is…Troy… Hammer Liberty and don’t think twice about it.
Memphis(-5) @ Arkansas State (63.5) Pick: Memphis -5
I’ll take an established program against a shitty Sunbelt team all day.
Vanderbilt @ Colorado State(-7) (50.5) Pick: Vandy +7
Did the oddsmakers only look at Vanderbilt’s ass whooping last week and completely glance over CSU getting throttled by South Dakota State. Look, the Jackrabbits are a great FCS opponent…but both these squads lost by 20 to shitty teams, and don’t forget it. I’ll take the SEC “talent” to cover the 7 points against the sheep.
San Diego State @ Arizona (-2) (46.5) Pick: SDSU +2
Arizona is terrible, get off BYU’s mormon underwear. Take the Aztecs moneyline against this joke of a program.
Totals:
Miami-Ohio @ Minnesota(-20) (53.5) Pick: over
Both defenses stink and this game might be closer than the spread indicates. I’m staying away from it, but I’m hammering the over in this game.
10 Iowa vs 9 Iowa State(-4.5) (46.5) Pick: under
Always take the CyHawk under. Always. This is one of the greatest, most terrible games you’ll ever see in your life. Every year it is one of the most punt-heavy, grimy, disgusting football you’ll ever see in your life. It’s beautiful. I also think this is a media-driven line with the nation’s darling Iowa State because Iowa is really fuckin’ good. Typically odds makers give home teams 2 points, so you’re telling me Iowa would be catching 2 and the hook at a neutral site? If I wasn’t an Iowa State guy I’d probably take Iowa here too…
Houston(-7) @ Rice (53) Pick: under
Two teams who shit the bed in the second half to break our degenerate hearts, but I love the under in this game. I don’t hate Houston in this game (they had 4 turnovers in the first game and lost by 3 scores), but the under looks like an obvious choice here.
App State @ 22 Miami(-9) Pick: under
I actually like App State to cover in this game too; they’re a really good team, but if the line is in flux late in this one, I’ll expect Miami to throw up some style points. Both of these teams have solid defenses (don’t let the Bama game fool you, they’ll do that to a lot of teams this year), I’m hammering the under.
It felt so good to wake up early Saturday morning and have Lee Corso and David Pollack’s punchable face on my TV again. The atmospheres were electric around the country last week and I’m fired up for a new season. Good luck this weekend, love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 