What a day of college football. My heart is still racing from the Pokes’ game…but I’ll take it. I love the board this week…so you should probably fade all my picks…LET’S GET IT!!
I stated to stay away from the Dallas/Tampa game, so I take no accountability for your Ls. I will however concede an L for myself because I’m a man of ‘tegrity. Spreads above were from earlier in the week, I’ll use the spreads from Saturday night to make picks for you filthy degenerates.
NYJ@CAR(-4.5) (45) Pick: Under
I hate to start the season with 2 under picks but…I still think both these offenses stink. I also love Bob Sallah and he will improve that Jets defense immensely. I don’t hate Carolina either, but I’ll take the under.
PIT@BUF(-6.5) (48) Pick: Over
Am I picking this game solely off the eye test? Yes. Do I trust the Steelers defense? Yes. Does this pick make any sense to me? No. The public seems to be on the over in this game too, so I’m not thrilled with it, but I gotta throw an over in there.
PHI@ATL(-3.5) (48) Pick: ATL
I might pick against the Eagles and Texans in every game this year until they show me otherwise. I can’t think of one redeeming quality for either team, so I guess I’ll take the most snakebitten franchise the last 5 years? Fuck it.
SEA(-3)@IND (48.5) Pick: under
Too many unknowns in this game, but I do know both teams are going to try to run the ball more this year and I love the Colts’ defense. I’ll hammer the under in this one.
LAC@WAS(-1.5) (44.5) Pick: WAS
I wish I would’ve wrote this when Washington was still a dawg, but I still like them at -1.5 value too. I still think Herbert is going to be outstanding and the Chargers will contend, but the Football Team will be really good this year.
JAX(-3.5)@HOU (46) Pick: JAX
Outside the stable of running backs, Brandin Cooks and Tyrod Taylor, I’m not sure I can name a player on the Texans. I already said I’m betting against them and Philly all season, I’ll be a man of my word…for now.
SF(-8.5)@DET (45) Pick: Under
Damn…I really had to think about this one. The Lions seem as though they’ll have a hardnose mentality to them (or at least try to) with Motor City Dan The Man Campbell and the ‘9ers are getting a lot back on defense. I’ll take the under.
MIN@CIN(+3.5) (48) Pick: CIN
Opening weekend home dawg? I’ll take them and I might sprinkle the moneyline as well. I still don’t trust the Vikings defense until they show me otherwise and the Bengals can take the next step and be a little more competitive in the AFC North if Ja’Marr Chase starts practicing with NFL footballs.
AZ@TEN(-3) (53) Pick: AZ
The sexy, popular pick is the over this weekend, but I’m not taking the bait. The loss of Patrick Peterson hurts, but the Cards added some weapons to help with a run defense that gave up the 11th most yards on the ground last year. The Titans will have to outscore teams this year, I think Arizona has enough defense to keep it close.
CLE@KC(-5.5) (54.5) Pick: CLE
We’ve heard all summer long about this “revamped” offensive line for the Chiefs, but I’m not buying it. They might still win this game, but the Browns have the ability to slow the pace down enough to keep it close.
DEN(-3)@NYG (41.5) Pick: Denver
This is one of those games where my analytics are skewed from the revolving door of quarterbacks the Broncos had last year. Every article I read on this game is talking about how much value there is for Giants bettors, but I’m not buying that shit. Denver’s run defense will be improved and I’m starting to think SaQuad Barkley actually stinks. I’ll take my Donkeys.
MIA@NE(-3.5) (43) Pick: Under
Is it just me or are the Dolphins the most disrespected team in the NFL this year? I get they don’t have Fitzmagic to come in for mop up duty and they lost some weapons on defense, but Brian Flores is still a good coach and they’ve added some weapons on offense for Tua. The dude came off a devastating Hip injury and had an up and down ROOKIE season and we’re ready to write him off as a bust. The Pats will be back because of their defense and their ability to run the ball this year, so I’ll hammer the under.
GB(-3.5)vsNO (49) Pick: Over
Jameis Winston is good. You heard it here first. He’ll have a resurgent season under Sean Payton and the Saints might actually be better this year…meanwhile the Packers are the same team, different year. Under 50 points in a Jameis/A-rod shootout?? I’ll hammer the over.
CHI@LAR(-8) (46.5) Pick: Under
Two things I remember from last year–always bet on Tom Brady and hammer Rams unders. Go ahead and do a same-game parlay if you want, the Rams will win by 3 scores, but the Bears defense is good enough to keep the Rams from scoring 40 themselves.
BAL(-4.5)@LV (50) Pick: Under
Although my analytics say to hammer the Ravens, the Raiders start off seasons strong then fizzle down the stretch. Both coaches are going to run the ball way more than they’re supposed to, so I’ll confidently take the under.
I hate how much I picked the under today…but I’m in the business of making you money, so I ain’t apologizing. I might hate myself Sunday while rooting for shitty football, but I’m a Broncos/Wyoming fan…Happy opening weekend, enjoy the games. Love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 