Yesterday, we ranked the remaining 16 teams in the tournament based off the only method I know, my own eyeballs. After taking a minute to digest the blog and look at the numbers, we can find value in the remaining 16 teams.
Best Value
Kansas +425
Look at their draw. I still don’t agree with the negative Providence publicity, but there’s no denying Kansas is the better team between the two, and they’ll be favored in their Elite Eight matchup between Miami or Iowa State. If you have a profit boost, it might be a good idea to use on the Jayhawks.
Purdue +900
Speaking of great draws, their most difficult test will be either a red hot UNC team who almost blew a 25 point lead to Baylor or a flawed UCLA team that was last in turnover differential in the lowly Pac-12 (sorry St. Peters). If they get the calls like they did in Texas (seriously…46 free throws), they should cake walk to the championship.
Villanova +1400
They’re in a region with two red hot teams in Michigan and Houston, but those two have shown inconsistencies all season to lead to their ranking. You know I won’t ever say anything bad about Michigan because we’re a wagon and will win it all. An unbiased person would say the turnovers and shooting woes to start games will bite us in the ass at some point, but I’m not that man. Villanova has two things that will win them this tournament, consistent guard play and free throw percentage. Jay Wright is also I’m willing to put an entire unit on them.
Good Value
Houston +900
Similar to what I said at the beginning of the tournament, we’re banking on Houston playing at their ceiling. The game against Arizona will be electric; if they get past the Wildcats in the next round, they’ll have a good matchup against Michigan or Villanova. Definitely worth at least a sprinkle.
Duke +1600
Look, they might’ve been my 16th seed in my last blog, but the Blue Devils are still one of the most talented teams in the tournament. It felt like the MSU game was a growing moment for the young Dukies. +1600 feels a bit disrespectful.
Texas Tech +1300
Take everything that I said about Duke, but flip it for Tech. They’re going to give Duke fits with their aggressive defense and matchup well with Gonzaga in the Elite Eight.
Providence +7000
They probably won’t get past Kansas, but if they can pull off a miracle, I like their chances against Miami or Iowa State and will play a team from the South region who will have run to get to the Final Four. Maybe they belong in my next category, but crazier things have happened than the “luckiest” team in the nation winning the ‘ship.
Sprinkle Value
Michigan +6000
They’re a wagon. We’re winning it all. You put a dollar down, you win 60. It’ll be a lot more fun than a scratch off ticket.
UCLA +1400
They’re flawed, but find ways to win and have the experience to win it all. I’ll stay away, but you can definitely make an argument to take a flyer on them.
North Carolina +2800
Since they beat the shit out of Duke to spoil Coach K’s retirement tour, they’ve looked like a completely different team. Hopefully the Baylor game is the wake up call they needed to keep from sleep walking through these next few games. They’ve got a great draw to make it to a Final Four and that’s all you can really ask for.
Miami +8000
Look at what I said about Michigan, but give them an extra game. As much as I love Iowa State, in my heart I know their run is flawed. Auburn played about as shitty as you possibly can, but give Miami credit for never giving the Tigers a chance to come back. If they play like that the rest of the tournament, they have a chance.
Profit Boost Value
Gonzaga +220, Arizona +550
I’m basically saying to take the field against these two 1 seeds because their draws are brutal. Gonzaga has to deal with the SEC player of the year in JD Notae and an aggressive Arkansas defense, Texas Tech and Duke. Arizona has Houston then Michigan or Villanova. I’m not saying to steer clear, but with there’s better value in the field…unless you have a profit boost to use on one of these teams.
No Value
Iowa State +10000, St. Peter’s +25000, Arkansas +6000
It hurt to put the Hogs on here, but I’m hedging my Final Four debacle of a bet with the bets above, and if they find a way to win it all, it’s still gravy. St. Peter’s run has been incredible, knocking off a blue blood in Kentucky and then leading, basically, wire to wire against Murray State. Iowa State will be back, this is a great foundation TJ Otzelberger is laying for future Cyclones, but the run is likely over this weekend.
My body needed this 3 day break, but I’ll be ready to push my body to its limits again in 48 hours. Rest, recover, hydrate, we have one big weekend to go before we’re down to 3 games. Buy stock now, love you, bye.
The Morning Flush 
Love the article and love the value with Purdue and Kansas. Way easier draws than the West and South regions. I might look for a parlay for both of those teams to get to the Final Four. And Saint Peter’s? From Jersey? THEY’RE NOTHING MORE THAN A GLORIFIED CREW.
Does it feel to you that Houston should have way higher odds than +900? They have to get through Arizona and then Villanova or maybe even a WAGON in Michigan. Then they have to beat Kansas to get to the Ship? Too many dragons to slay for Houston I think. I’ll take your comments off the air.
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